Met Office Warns of Possible 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold Breach in 2024
12th December 2023In a stark announcement, the Met Office, Britain’s national weather service, has raised concerns that the global average temperature may temporarily breach the critical 1.5-degree Celsius mark in the year 2024. This forecast, revealed at a pivotal moment during the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, underscores the urgency of addressing climate change.
As the current year is on track to become the warmest on record, projections for 2024 suggest an average global temperature between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This potential increase is attributed to the ongoing trend of global warming, marked by a 0.2°C per decade rise, combined with the impact of a significant El Niño event.
Nick Dunstone, leading forecasting efforts at the Met Office, emphasized that while a single year exceeding 1.5°C does not signify a long-term breach, it highlights the imperative for decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He clarified that such an occurrence wouldn’t violate the Paris Agreement’s objectives.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) supported these concerns, estimating this year’s warming to be approximately 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The WMO linked extreme weather events and unprecedented ice loss to the potential consequences of a sustained breach of the 1.5°C limit.
A coalition of scientists, including experts from NASA and Columbia University, has warned that the planet might cross the 1.5°C threshold within this decade. Additionally, UN IPCC emissions models predict a likely breach of the 1.5°C mark during the 2030s without significant mitigation efforts.
As the global community grapples with these alarming predictions, the COP28 summit becomes a critical juncture for nations to commit to more aggressive measures, combating climate change and averting the long-term consequences of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold.
